American Economic Review

We introduce an empirical framework for valuing markets in environmental offsets. Using newly collected data on wetland conservation and offsets, we apply this framework to evaluate a set of decentralized markets in Florida, where land developers purchase offsets from long-lived producers who restore wetlands over time. We find offsets led to substantial private gains from trade, creating $2.4 billion of net surplus from 1995 to 2020 relative to direct conservation. Offset trading also generated new hydrological externalities. A locally differentiated Pigouvian tax would have prevented $1.6 billion of new flood damage while preserving more than two-thirds of the private gains from trade. (JEL D47, D62, H23, Q24, Q54, Q57, R14)

本文提出了一个评估环境抵消市场价值的实证框架。利用新收集的湿地保护与抵消数据，我们将该框架应用于佛罗里达州的一组分散化市场——在这些市场中，土地开发商从长期从事湿地恢复的生产者处购买抵消额度。研究发现，抵消交易带来了可观的私人交易收益：1995年至2020年间，相对于直接保护，抵消交易创造了24亿美元的净剩余。但抵消交易也产生了新的水文外部性。一项地方差异化的庇古税本可以避免16亿美元的新增洪水损失，同时保留超过三分之二的私人交易收益。

The influence of on-the-job training and supervisors, especially in high-stakes settings like policing, is poorly understood. Examining a central behavior in the debate surrounding police reform, we investigate the impact of a field training officer (FTO) on a recruit's use of force. Leveraging a setting with conditional as-good-as-random assignment, we demonstrate a causal link between FTO and recruit use of force. A 1 standard deviation increase in FTO force propensity leads to a 14 to 18 percent rise in recruit force, persisting for at least two years. This underscores field training's impact and reveals a promising avenue for reform. (JEL D91, J24, J45, K42, M53)

在职培训和主管人员的影响——尤其是在警务这类高风险情境中——目前理解尚不充分。本文以警察改革辩论中的一项核心行为为研究对象，考察了实地训练教官对新警员使用武力行为的影响。利用一项条件上近似随机分配的研究环境，我们证明了FTO与新警员使用武力之间的因果关系。FTO使用武力的倾向每增加一个标准差，新警员使用武力将上升14%至18%，且该效应至少持续两年。这一发现凸显了实地培训的影响力，并为改革提供了一条有前景的路径。

We show that bank shocks to firms propagate along the production network with stronger upstream than downstream effects. Our identification relies on (i) administrative datasets from Spain covering supplier-customer transactions and bank loans, (ii) bank credit supply shocks from the global financial crisis, and (iii) a general equilibrium model of a production network with financial frictions, estimated structurally. We find network propagation amplifies the impact of bank shocks on GDP growth by nearly 50 percent. Moreover, bank shocks to firms' distant suppliers and customers contribute similarly to this aggregate effect as bank shocks to firms' direct customers and suppliers. (JEL D22, D85, E23, G01, G21, G32, L14)

本文表明，施加于企业的银行冲击会沿生产网络传播，且上游效应强于下游效应。我们的识别策略依赖于：(i) 涵盖供应商-客户交易和银行贷款的西班牙行政数据集，(ii) 全球金融危机产生的银行信贷供给冲击，以及 (iii) 一个包含金融摩擦的生产网络一般均衡模型的结构估计。研究发现，网络传播效应将银行冲击对GDP增长的影响放大了近50%。此外，银行对企业的远距离供应商和客户的冲击，与银行对企业直接客户和供应商的冲击，对总效应的贡献程度相当。

This paper shows that the wage assimilation of immigrants is the result of the intricate interplay between individual skill accumulation and dynamic labor market equilibrium effects. When immigrants and natives are imperfect substitutes, rising immigrant inflows widen the wage gap between them. Using a production function framework in which workers supply both general and host-country-specific skills, we show that this labor market competition channel explains about one-fifth of the large increase in the average immigrant–native wage gap across arrival cohorts in the United States since the 1960s. The results further reveal substantial heterogeneity across different groups of immigrants. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J61, K37, O33)

本文表明，移民的工资同化是个体技能积累与动态劳动力市场均衡效应之间复杂交互作用的结果。当移民与本地人存在不完全替代关系时，移民流入的增加会扩大两者之间的工资差距。利用一个工人同时供给通用技能和东道国特定技能的生产函数框架，我们发现这一劳动力市场竞争渠道解释了自20世纪60年代以来美国各到达队列间移民-本地人平均工资差距大幅上升的约五分之一。研究结果还揭示了不同移民群体之间存在显著异质性。

We study social preferences in settings where someone who chooses on behalf of others knows how those individuals rank the available options but may lack cardinal information concerning those comparisons. Contrary to majoritarian principles, most people place more weight on preventing least preferred outcomes for others than on enabling most preferred outcomes. Ranks matter both intrinsically and because they provide a basis for inferring cardinal utility. Ordinal aggregation principles are stable across domains and countries with divergent political traditions. Designing attractive social choice mechanisms is challenging in practice partly because aggregation principles that make manipulation difficult yield outcomes people consider normatively unappealing. (JEL C91, D71, D72)

本文研究了一类情境中的社会偏好：代他人做选择的人知道这些个体对可用选项的排序，但可能缺乏关于这些比较的基数信息。与多数主义原则相反，大多数人更重视防止他人遭遇最不偏好的结果，而非促成最偏好的结果。排序本身具有内在重要性，同时也为推断基数效用提供了基础。序数加总原则在不同领域和具有不同政治传统的国家中表现出稳定性。设计有吸引力的社会选择机制在实践中具有挑战性，部分原因在于：使操纵变得困难的加总原则往往产生人们认为在规范上缺乏吸引力的结果。

Weekly lotteries determine which politicians ask the UK prime minister a question in front of a male-dominated, noisy chamber. Lottery winners receive 4 percent higher vote margin in the next election, but women are 12 percent less likely to submit questions than same-cohort men. The gender gap does not close with lottery-induced experience asking a question, but it closes after a format change, with questions asked to a smaller, quieter audience. The switch differentially draws in women with quieter voices. Our findings support institutional change, rather than experience, as a response to gender gaps in adversarial settings like the UK Parliament. (JEL D44, D72, J16)

英国议会通过每周抽签决定哪位议员可以在男性主导的嘈杂议事厅中向首相提问。抽签获胜者在下次选举中的得票率高出4个百分点，但女性提交问题的可能性比同批男性低12%。通过抽签获得提问经验并不能缩小性别差距，但在形式改变后——即提问面向更小、更安静的听众时——性别差距消失了。这一转变差异化地吸引了声音较轻的女性参与。我们的发现支持制度变革而非经验积累作为应对英国议会等对抗性环境中性别差距的路径。

A common interpretation of Pareto-efficient policies is that, for some cardinal utility representations of preferences, they maximize utilitarian welfare. We show in the context of income taxation that such cardinalizations are often extreme, requiring unbounded curvature of utility with respect to consumption. Taxes can be justified as utilitarian without these extreme cardinalizations if and only if revenues are decreasing and concave in a class of narrowly targeted tax cuts. We reformulate this condition as a sufficient-statistics test. The test fails whenever elasticities of taxable income are too heterogeneous within some income level, as we argue is empirically likely. (JEL D81, H21, H23, H24, J22, J31)

对帕累托有效政策的一种常见解释是，对于偏好的某些基数效用表示，它们最大化了功利主义福利。本文在所得税的背景下证明，这类基数化往往是极端的，要求效用对消费具有无界的曲率。当且仅当税收收入在一类窄范围定向减税中是递减且凹的，税收才可以在无需这些极端基数化的情况下被证明为功利主义的。我们将这一条件重新表述为一个充分统计量检验。当应税收入弹性在同一收入水平内过于异质时——我们认为这在实证上是可能的——该检验就会失败。

Using linked employer-employee data from Brazil, we document a significant gender pay gap, which is largely attributed to women working at lower-paying employers. To interpret this fact, we develop an equilibrium search model with endogenous firm pay, amenities, and hiring. We provide a constructive proof of identification of all model parameters. The estimated model suggests that amenities are important for both men and women, and that compensating differentials account for half of the gender pay gap. Equal treatment policies partly close gender gaps but are not output- or welfare-improving. (JEL E24, J16, J23, J31, J32, M51, O15)

利用巴西的雇主-雇员匹配数据，我们记录了一个显著的性别薪酬差距，该差距在很大程度上归因于女性在薪酬较低的雇主处工作。为解释这一事实，我们建立了一个包含内生性企业薪酬、工作便利设施和招聘决策的均衡搜索模型，并给出了所有模型参数可识别性的构造性证明。模型估计结果表明，工作便利设施对男性和女性都很重要，补偿性差异解释了性别薪酬差距的一半。平等待遇政策可以部分缩小性别差距，但并不会提高产出或改善福利。

We use Danish administrative data to examine the effects of parental death on labor market outcomes. Leveraging the timing of sudden, first parental deaths and a matched-control difference-in-differences strategy, we find that men's earnings decline by 2 percent, while women's earnings decline by 3 percent following a parental death. Both women and men experience mental health deterioration, leading to increased use of psychological assistance and prescriptions for mental health conditions and opioids. Women with young children experience a comparatively larger earnings decline (around 4 percent) likely due to the loss of informal childcare. (JEL D91, I12, J13, J16, J31)

本文利用丹麦行政数据研究父母去世对劳动力市场结果的影响。借助首次父母突然去世的时间点，并采用匹配控制组的双重差分策略，我们发现：父母去世后，男性的收入下降2%，女性的收入下降3%。女性和男性均经历心理健康恶化，表现为心理咨询使用增加以及精神健康问题和阿片类药物的处方增加。有年幼子女的女性收入下降幅度更大（约4%），这可能是由于失去了非正式育儿支持。

How does information transmission change when it requires attracting the attention of receivers? This paper combines an experiment that varies freelance professionals' incentives to attract attention about scientific findings, with several online experiments that exogenously expose receivers to the content created. Attention incentives lead to significantly less information being transmitted, but not more factually inaccurate content. These incentives increase information demand and the knowledge of interested receivers. However, among the majority of receivers who do not demand more information, attention incentives lower knowledge and increase biases in beliefs, revealing a channel through which misperceptions can arise: missing information. (JEL C91, D83, D91)

当信息传递需要吸引接收者注意力时，信息传递会如何变化？本文将一项改变自由职业者吸引注意力激励的实验（涉及科学发现的传播）与数项外生地让接收者接触所创内容的在线实验结合起来。注意力激励导致传递的信息显著减少，但并未增加事实上不准确的内容。这些激励增加了感兴趣接收者的信息需求和知识。然而，在大多数不主动寻求更多信息的接收者中，注意力激励降低了知识水平并加剧了信念偏差，揭示了一个可能导致错误认知的渠道：缺失信息。